Mathematics
Advanced
50 mins
Teacher/Student led
+95 XP
What you need:
IWB/Projector/Large Screen
Dice

Testing Predictions with Dice and Spinners

Make a prediction about what will happen when you roll a die or spin a spinner, then test it by recording the results. Discover how short runs can be surprising, but many turns reveal a fair pattern.

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    1 - Getting Started ~3 mins

    Illustration for Getting StartedHere is one ordinary six-sided die. If we roll it lots and lots of times, do you think every number will come up about the same amount, or will one number win in the end?

    2 - Watch and Notice ~9 mins

    Watch three things here. First, a single roll shows one face. Next, ten rolls can look lopsided — one number pops up more than its share over a short run. Last, a fair spinner has equal segments, so no colour is favoured even when a short run looks uneven.

    Look for the equal-sized parts: on the die every face is the same, on the spinner every segment is the same.

    3 - Try It Together ~11 mins

    Today we work through this together: we predict, then spin, then check. First the class predicts which colour a fair spinner will favour over twenty spins. Then a pupil spins twenty times and we tally each result on the board. After ten spins we pause and read the running tally, then finish to twenty and read it again.

    Predict, spin, tally: twenty spins

    4 - Predict and Tally in Your Copy ~4 mins

    COPYBOOK MOMENT

    In your maths copy, write your own prediction for twenty rolls of one die: how many times do you think each number will come up? Write that down first. Now I will roll the die at the board twenty times and call out each result. Keep a tally as I call them. When we finish, write one sentence saying how close the real results were to your prediction.

    5 - Class Challenge ~9 mins

    Today we test three predictions, one harder than the last. For each one we predict first. Then we roll and tally. Then we judge whether the prediction held. Watch the board and agree or correct out loud.

    • Is every die number about equal over twenty-four rolls?
    • If one number races ahead in the first few rolls, does that mean the die is unfair?
    • Do more rolls make the counts fairer? Compare ten rolls with thirty.

    Test three chance predictions

    Pupil practice
    Module 9 · Data and Chance Mixed
    Lesson 113 · Testing Predictions with Dice and Spinners
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