Here is a spinner split into four equal parts. Two parts are red and two parts are green.

Watch four spinners on the board. For each one, think: how likely is it to land on green?

Which spinner makes green the surest? Which makes green completely out of reach?

Today we work through these words together, making the spinner match each one: first make green certain, then likely, then an even chance, then unlikely, and finally impossible.

As we set each spinner, say out loud why the parts match the word.

Today we sort five everyday events by how likely they are, all together at the board. When it is your turn, come up, choose the likelihood word that fits, and say why. Everyone else watches and agrees or gently corrects:

• The sun will rise tomorrow.
• I will roll an 8 on an ordinary die.
• A tossed coin lands on heads.
• It will snow in Cork in July.
• Someone in the class has a birthday this month.