Mathematics
Beginner
50 mins
Teacher/Student led
Learning Goals
Learning Outcomes
Lesson Files
+80 XP
What you need:
IWB/Projector/Large Screen

Ordering Events on a Likelihood Line

Place everyday events along a likelihood line from impossible to certain, then order two likely events by comparing which is more probable, using reasoning to defend each placement.

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    1 - Getting Started ~4 mins

    Key point

    Here is a line. One end says impossible, the other end says certain, and the middle says even chance.

    Illustration for Getting StartedThink about this: "It will rain in Galway this week." Where on this line would you put it? Right at the end, near the middle, or somewhere in between?

    👇 Mark your steps as done as you complete them.

    +5 XP

    2 - Watch and Notice ~7 mins

    Watch four everyday events already placed on the likelihood line. Look at where each one sits and think about why it landed there.

    One event sits at each end, one lands on the middle even-chance mark, and one lands in between. Watch how far from the middle each one goes, and think about why.

    👇 Mark your steps as done as you complete them.

    +10 XP

    3 - Try It Together ~12 mins

    Today we place these events on the line together, one at a time:

    1. Tomorrow is a school day
    2. A dropped slice of toast lands butter-side down
    3. The summer holidays will come this year
    4. I will roll a six on one die
    Key point

    Our judge stays on the middle: a coin landing heads is an even chance. Before each card goes down, we ask, is this event more likely or less likely than a coin landing heads?

    Place each event on the line

    +15 XP

    4 - Draw the Line in Your Copy ~3 mins

    COPYBOOK MOMENT

    Illustration for Draw the Line in Your CopyIn your maths copy, draw a likelihood line right across the page. Label the left end impossible, the middle even chance, and the right end certain.

    Then mark these four events as points along your line:

    • It will get dark tonight
    • A dropped ball will bounce back higher than it started
    • The next person through the door is a teacher
    • A tossed coin lands tails
    +10 XP

    5 - Class Challenge ~8 mins

    Now the harder work: some of these events are both likely, so we have to decide which one is more likely and which sits closer to certain.

    Key point

    Here are the four events to place:

    1. The school bell will ring today
    2. It will be cloudy at some point today
    3. I will meet a friend in the yard at break
    4. A sweet from a jar of red and green sweets is red

    For that last card, ask yourself: do we know how many red and how many green are in the jar? What would we need to know before we could place it?

    Order these likely events

    +15 XP
    Pupil practice
    Module 9 · Data and Chance Data & Chance
    Lesson 112 · Ordering Events on a Likelihood Line
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